I mean no disrespect to the millions of decent, thoughtful, Democrat voters. I fully acknowledge that I am British, observing from the outside of the process, and may be talking from my rear end, but remember this headline and the date of the post. As I write there are still 4 days before all the votes have been cast in the 2016 US Presidential Election. Nevertheless I feel confident in predicting a Trump win, as I did a Conservative UK election win in May and a UK ‘Brexit’ vote in June. At the time of my Brexit prediction I also predicted Trump would win. Not only do I think he will win, I think he will win decisively – and this is why.
Hilary Clinton, her Democratic party machine and, frankly, the established Republican party, have failed to see that the political ground has shifted. It’s like they turned up ready to play soccer when the crowd came to see baseball. As of yesterday, Hilary Clinton is still reported to be addressing rallies with pop stars and celebrities in support: this is the old politics. The Democrat machine ought to have seen it, given the power of Bernie Sanders’s showing in the primary rounds. Critics of Trump all come from the position of rationale, of experience, of political and economic understanding based in education and knowledge. Trump’s support doesn’t come from here. It has done no good to point out the holes in his politics, his rhetoric and his character because his supporters don’t care. A lot of them are the same. I suspect they regard the reasoned, educated warnings of disaster as just more evidence of a patronising elite. It’s not, and never has been, intellectual: it is visceral.
That’s how we came to vote for Brexit and, if any more evidence of that were required, one has only to look at the fury, the vituperative nastiness, that has flowed since the UK High Court insisted that Parliament, not the government of the day, must vote on Brexit before it is triggered. Despite the fact that it was a legal, and not political, decision, and one which reasserts the constitutional primacy of law over politics, the pro-Brexiteers poured scorn on the judges. They have claimed this is an attempt to subvert the “will of the people” as expressed in a (non-binding) referendum. In calling into play their financial backgrounds, their sexuality, and the nationality of their spouses, they blatantly played to their homophobic, nationalist and largely working class constituency. I fear that, whatever happens on both sides of the Atlantic, we are all in for a very rough ride. The frustration of disappointment over what Brexit, or a Trump presidency, actually delivers is fertile ground for social unrest.